Next generation scenarios for informing climate and sustainability transitions
Horizon Europe · Grant topic
Summary
A Polish company can use this call for R&D.
Funds researchers and companies developing integrated climate and sustainability scenarios to support policy, planning and business decisions.
- Who can apply
- Companies can lead: SME, large company, startup, research org, university.
- Amount
- €4M per projectTotal budget €24,000,000
- Deadline
- 04 Mar 2027 01:00 CETin 131 days
- Status
- Forthcomingopens 17 Nov 2026
Machine-classified from the call text; check eligibility at the source.
Description
Expected Outcome:
Project results are expected to contribute to some of the following expected outcomes:
• Strengthened collaboration and integration across research communities, better capturing interactions and trade-offs between various climate domains as well as between climate and non-climate objectives, such as biodiversity or pollution related. This will support more comprehensive and consistent evaluations, benefiting key global assessments (IPCC, IPBES) and improving their impact on European and global policies (European Green Deal, UNFCCC, CBD);
• More relevant, robust and actionable scenarios that inform optimal policy interventions, serving the needs and supporting decision-making of diverse end-users at various spatial scales, from policymakers and planning authorities to businesses and civil society;
• More globally representative, diverse, inclusive, transparent, widely accepted and better communicated scenarios that support climate-resilient development pathways and foster global consensus on climate action.
Scope:
Climate scenarios have been instrumental in shaping global, national, and increasingly local responses to climate change by helping stakeholders make informed decisions. Against the backdrop of rapid environmental shifts, social upheavals, high uncertainties and complexity, scenarios must be advanced to inform low-emission climate-resilient pathways, while also accounting for other critical policy priorities, such as environmental protection.
Actions should improve Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or propose alternative approaches to address key challenges and gaps in current climate scenario frameworks. They should extend the scope of scenarios beyond the 21st century, enlarge the future possibility space with more diverse narratives and drivers (e.g. post-growth), more explicit consideration of equity, justice, geopolitics and attention to inclusivity.
Proposals are expected to address only one of the following priority areas, which should be clearly indicated:
Area A: Integration of climate impacts and adaptation dimension
Develop approaches to better integrate physical climate impacts, adaptation, its costs and limits into mitigation pathways. This includes exploring how climate impacts including extremes and biophysical feedbacks affect mitigation strategies, testing the resilience of low-emission pathways to climate impacts, and how adaptation interacts with mitigation.
Area B: Improved scenario frameworks
Update baseline scenarios and expand scenario narratives to better address multi-scale, cross-sectoral issues and the needs of downstream assessments. Scenarios should capture a wider range of plausible futures to reflect changing socio-economic and environmental conditions (including a broader range of economic growth assumptions), technological advancements, evolving policy landscape and disruptive events. This includes extension of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario framework, or development of alternatives, to enhance regional and local applicability, to support adaptation pathway development, and to improve relevance beyond the climate research community - notably for biodiversity and SDGs.
Area C: Improved policy representation
Enhance the granularity and diversity of policy (both mitigation and adaptation) representation in scenarios with more focus on implementation aspects to bridge the gap between modelled pathways and real-world action. Address social, geopolitical, economic and technological factors, considering interactions between industrial, trade, climate and other environmental policies (e.g. air pollution). Examine implications for competitiveness, employment, investment flows, energy security, supply chain resilience, technological innovation, international spillovers, as well as well-being. Investigate implementation and impact of recent commitments and initiatives (e.g. fossil fuel phase-out, Global Methane Pledge) and the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on their implementation, and mitigation action overall.
Actions should promote transdisciplinary collaboration and co-design with stakeholders to integrate diverse perspectives and needs They should develop and test new approaches, including communication, to improve uptake of results by various audiences. The topic therefore requires inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, to produce meaningful and significant effects to enhance the societal impact of related research activities.
All projects funded from this topic are strongly encouraged to collaborate and envisage clustering activities together and with other relevant projects in and outside of Horizon Europe. They should contribute to the organisation of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform[1] conferences to foster dialogue between scientists, policymakers and other stakeholders. They should also support inclusive and transparent model intercomparison exercises, aligning with the efforts of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum[2].
International cooperation is generally encouraged and specifically required with low, and lower/upper-middle-income countries[3] – particularly major GHG emitters[4] such as China (contributing to the EU-China Climate Change and Biodiversity (CCB) flagship initiative[5]), India, Brazil and Indonesia. It should ensure diverse, globally representative scenario space and, where appropriate, foster capacity development.
[1] https://www.ecemf.eu/ecemp/european-climate-and-energy-modelling-platform/
[2] https://www.ecemf.eu/
[3] https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lendinggroups; standard Horizon Europe funding rules apply - only participants from some of these countries are automatically eligible for funding
[4] https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2024?vis=ghgtot#emissions_table
[5] International cooperation with China in research and innovation
Who can apply, in detail
- Applicant types
- SME, Large company, Startup, Research org, University
- Purpose
- Research and innovation
- R&D relevance
- 2 of 3
- Poland eligible
- Yes
- Country limit
- —
- Region
- Any
- Consortium
- Unclear
- Readiness level (TRL)
- —
- Topics
- Climate transition scenarios
- Sustainability modelling
- Biodiversity-climate interactions
- Policy decision support
- Climate-resilient development
Machine-classified from the call text; check eligibility at the source. 23 Oct 2026
Conditions
Typed facts extracted from the source documents by Scindu's grant-data review. Each value keeps its own conditions. Unknown means unstated, not zero or unlimited.
- Consortium required
- Yes
General Annex B baseline for RIA, subject to any topic-specific exceptions recorded separately. The application consortium must include at least three mutually independent legal entities in different countries: at least one established in an EU Member State and at least two others established in different EU Member States or Associated Countries. Affiliated entities do not count toward the minimum. This topic-specific requirement is additional: at least three independent legal entities must be established in three different low or lower/upper-middle-income countries, participating as beneficiaries or associated partners.
- Other condition
- Research and Innovation Action.
- Other condition
- Awards may depart from strict ranking order to fund at least two highest-ranked threshold-passing applications in each of areas A, B and C.
- Other condition
- If a project uses satellite-based Earth observation, positioning/navigation or related timing data/services, beneficiaries must use Copernicus and/or Galileo/EGNOS; other sources may also be used.
- Other condition
- The topic uses a lump-sum grant. For proposal estimates, use the same eligible-cost rules as an actual-cost Horizon grant and cost estimates must be realistic, consistent with normal practices, reasonable/not excessive, and necessary for the proposed activities. Payment follows the grant’s lump-sum work-package conditions; personnel costs are not separately reimbursed as actual payroll.
Do not treat the estimate as actual-cost reimbursement or infer that the topic prohibits hiring/payroll.
- Other condition
- The overview expects around 6 project(s) to be funded under this topic. This is an indicative planning number, not a guaranteed award count or consortium-size condition.
Scope is funded projects under this topic; not beneficiaries, consortium members, or award entitlement.
- Other condition
- The JRC may participate after selection as a zero-funded beneficiary or associated partner, but will not participate in preparing or submitting the proposal.
- Other condition
- Actions should improve Integrated Assessment Models or alternatives, extend scenarios beyond the 21st century, diversify narratives/drivers and address equity, justice, geopolitics and inclusivity.
- Other condition
- Each proposal is expected to address only one of three priority areas: Area A, Integration of climate impacts and adaptation dimension; Area B, Improved scenario frameworks; or Area C, Improved policy representation.
- Other condition
- Open access must be ensured for new or substantially improved modules, models or tools developed with EU funding through documentation and availability of the model code and input data developed under the action.
- Partner requirement
- The consortium must include, as beneficiaries or associated partners, at least three independent legal entities established in three different low or lower/upper-middle-income countries.
This is an additional topic-specific participation requirement, separate from the standard Horizon Europe minimum consortium composition. Standard Horizon Europe funding rules apply; only participants from some of these countries are automatically eligible for funding, as footnote 118 states. The source does not identify in this clause which countries are automatically eligible.
Amounts and costs
- Indicative budget
- €24,000,000
Topic budget as stated in the portal's budget table. Lump-sum and per-project limits are in the call conditions.
- Eligible cost
- Natural persons under direct contract and third-party seconded persons may qualify as personnel only if assigned to the action and working under employee-like conditions, the work result belongs to the beneficiary unless agreed otherwise, and the rate reflects costs actually incurred without significant difference from comparable employees. These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated.
- Eligible cost
- Employee personnel costs may be included only for people employed by the beneficiary (or equivalent appointing act), assigned to the action, meeting all general eligibility conditions, and calculated under the grant rules. These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated.
- Eligible cost
- Unpaid SME owners and natural-person beneficiaries may claim personnel costs only under the applicable Annex 2a unit-cost method and the general eligibility conditions. These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated.
- Eligible cost
- Subcontracting estimates/costs and purchase costs are governed by the relevant grant form. Under actual-cost rules, subcontracting must meet general eligibility and usual purchasing practices ensuring best value for money (or lowest price) and no conflict of interest. For this lump-sum topic these inform eligible budget estimates, not separate reimbursement lines.
- Funding intensity, maximum
- 100 percent of eligible costs
RIA maximum rate under General Annex G; final rate and amounts are fixed in the grant agreement.
- Expected contribution per project
- €4,000,000
Commission estimate of EU contribution per project. Different requested amounts are not precluded; this is indicative, not a floor, cap or guarantee.
- Topic allocation
- €24,000,000
Indicative topic allocation; separate from per-project EU contribution and not an individual award or grant cap.
Personnel and services
General eligible personnel cost category only; not a call-promised hire.
Other role · Staff cost the grant can fund
These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated. The person must be assigned to the action, work under employee-like conditions, the work result must belong to the beneficiary unless otherwise agreed, and costs must correspond to actual costs without significant difference from comparable employees.
General cost category permitted by applicable MGA rules; no specific job or hire asserted.
Other role · Staff cost the grant can fund
These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated. Eligible only when assigned to the action and all MGA Article 6 conditions are met.
Conditional cost category, not an advertised role.
Other role · Staff cost the grant can fund
These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated. Costs must follow the Annex 2a unit-cost method and general eligibility conditions; no call-specific hire or salary is stated.
Required SSH capability as expressly stated by the topic; no specific vacancy or number of people is stated.
Other role · Required staff
The topic states that it requires inclusion of relevant SSH expertise. This is a capability requirement, not a requirement to hire new staff; no headcount, employment form or pay is specified.
Source documents
Call facts
- Opens
- 17 Nov 2026
- Deadline model
- Single-stage
- Programme
- Horizon Europe · 2021 - 2027
- Call
- HORIZON-CL5-2027-01 · CLIMATE
- Types of action
- HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
- Source
- ec.europa.eu
- Checked
- 24 Oct 2026
- Portal updated
- 7 Oct 2026
- Review status
- Partial review
- Reviewed
- 23 Oct 2026
This is a summary of the source page, not the official text. Eligibility, conditions and the submission system are at the source.