Advancing understanding, modelling and prediction of extreme events in a changing climate
Horizon Europe · Grant topic
Summary
A Polish company can use this call for R&D.
Funds research teams and companies improving understanding, modelling and prediction of climate extremes, cascading hazards and early warning capabilities.
- Who can apply
- Companies can lead: SME, large company, research org, university.
- Amount
- €6M per projectTotal budget €18,000,000
- Deadline
- 04 Mar 2027 01:00 CETin 131 days
- Status
- Forthcomingopens 17 Nov 2026
Machine-classified from the call text; check eligibility at the source.
Description
Expected Outcome:
Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:
• Improved understanding of past and present extreme events in the context of climate change in Europe and globally, as well as the interaction between different hazards, their cumulative and/or cascading effects.
• Enhanced seamless prediction and projection modelling and attribution capabilities for extreme events and their likelihood to support preparedness, response and resilience to climate change by EU and national and regional actors. The EU Union Preparedness Strategy, the EU Adaptation Strategy and the European Climate Adaptation Plan can act as a guidance in these efforts.
• Up-to-date contributions towards latest climate science, risk assessments, adaptation strategies and policies and improved early warning systems for single and multi-hazard events.
Scope:
Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events. Understanding and predicting extreme events and the interaction between different types of hazards is critical for building resilience and safeguarding communities.
Actions are expected to draw upon multiple lines of evidence from a hierarchy of models (including high resolution Earth system models and digital twins) and data of past and recent climate to further our understanding of processes, pre-conditioning and causality driving extreme events under climate change conditions, including anthropogenic factors and internal variability. Other innovative and efficient modelling and analysis methods, including AI-based approaches, to better predict, emulate and reveal climate change related extreme and unprecedented high impact events, and to capture their likelihood are particularly welcome.
Extreme events should be addressed in their broadest sense and types, encompassing isolated, compound or cascading events affecting lives, livelihoods, ecosystems, socio-economic sectors and infrastructures, from large-scale continental to local-scale phenomena.
Actions should encompass quantitative intercomparisons, retrospective analyses, lessons learned and case studies of recent emblematic and diverse extreme events, and demonstrate the corresponding progress offered by the project in terms of improved understanding, comprehensive integration of multiple lines of evidence, and seamless (e.g. from short-term weather to sub-seasonal and multi-decadal scales) prediction and projection capabilities and skills.
The work is expected to support the future European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA)[1], for example through storylines on extremes or other approaches. Project outcomes should demonstrate clear benefits for the prediction and attribution of extreme events and contribute to the activities of the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change.
Cooperation with global, EU, national and regional actors in the field of Disaster Risk Reduction and climate adaptation, including through integration into or interoperability with Copernicus, Destination Earth and other relevant initiatives is encouraged. In addition, international cooperation with low- to middle-income countries automatically eligible for Horizon Europe funding[2] is encouraged in support of climate resilience efforts, especially for capacity building.
Selected proposals may consider the involvement of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) whose contribution could consist of scientific advice and technical support in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service and transfer of relevant research outcomes to operations.
This topic is part of a coordination initiative between ESA and the European Commission on Earth System Science (ESSI) under the new Extreme-Events Flagship Cluster. Successful consortia will be asked to coordinate with projects to be selected under ESA's FutureEO programme to facilitate access to and uptake of satellite data products and related tools or methodologies. To this end, proposals should foresee sufficient means for effective coordination (i.e. cluster meetings, joint data management, potential joint actions).
[1] https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/publications/european-climate-risk-assessment
[2] Please refer to the Horizon Europe List of Participating Countries on EU Funding and Tenders Portal for up-to-date information.
Who can apply, in detail
- Applicant types
- SME, Large company, Research org, University
- Purpose
- Research and innovation
- R&D relevance
- 3 of 3
- Poland eligible
- Yes
- Country limit
- —
- Region
- Any
- Consortium
- Unclear
- Readiness level (TRL)
- —
- Topics
- Extreme weather events
- Climate modelling
- Multi-hazard prediction
- Early warning systems
Machine-classified from the call text; check eligibility at the source. 23 Oct 2026
Conditions
Typed facts extracted from the source documents by Scindu's grant-data review. Each value keeps its own conditions. Unknown means unstated, not zero or unlimited.
- Consortium required
- Yes
General Annex B baseline for RIA, subject to any topic-specific exceptions recorded separately. The application consortium must include at least three mutually independent legal entities in different countries: at least one established in an EU Member State and at least two others established in different EU Member States or Associated Countries. Affiliated entities do not count toward the minimum.
- Other condition
- Research and Innovation Action.
- Other condition
- If a project uses satellite-based Earth observation, positioning/navigation or related timing data/services, beneficiaries must use Copernicus and/or Galileo/EGNOS; other sources may also be used.
- Other condition
- The topic uses a lump-sum grant. For proposal estimates, use the same eligible-cost rules as an actual-cost Horizon grant and cost estimates must be realistic, consistent with normal practices, reasonable/not excessive, and necessary for the proposed activities. Payment follows the grant’s lump-sum work-package conditions; personnel costs are not separately reimbursed as actual payroll.
Do not treat the estimate as actual-cost reimbursement or infer that the topic prohibits hiring/payroll.
- Other condition
- The overview expects around 3 project(s) to be funded under this topic. This is an indicative planning number, not a guaranteed award count or consortium-size condition.
Scope is funded projects under this topic; not beneficiaries, consortium members, or award entitlement.
- Other condition
- The JRC may participate after selection as a zero-funded beneficiary or associated partner, but will not participate in preparing or submitting the proposal.
- Other condition
- Expected results include improved understanding of past and present extreme events and their interactions, improved prediction/projection and attribution, and contributions to risk assessments, adaptation strategies and early warning systems.
- Other condition
- Actions are expected to combine multiple lines of evidence, models and past/recent climate data to study processes, pre-conditioning and causality of extreme events under climate change.
- Other condition
- Actions should use quantitative intercomparisons, retrospective analyses, lessons learned and recent event case studies, with improved integration of evidence and prediction/projection across timescales.
- Other condition
- Work is expected to support the future European Climate Risk Assessment and contribute to the EU Mission on Adaptation; coordination with ESA FutureEO-selected projects is expected and resources should be planned.
Amounts and costs
- Indicative budget
- €18,000,000
Topic budget as stated in the portal's budget table. Lump-sum and per-project limits are in the call conditions.
- Eligible cost
- Natural persons under direct contract and third-party seconded persons may qualify as personnel only if assigned to the action and working under employee-like conditions, the work result belongs to the beneficiary unless agreed otherwise, and the rate reflects costs actually incurred without significant difference from comparable employees. These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated.
- Eligible cost
- Employee personnel costs may be included only for people employed by the beneficiary (or equivalent appointing act), assigned to the action, meeting all general eligibility conditions, and calculated under the grant rules. These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated.
- Eligible cost
- Unpaid SME owners and natural-person beneficiaries may claim personnel costs only under the applicable Annex 2a unit-cost method and the general eligibility conditions. These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated.
- Eligible cost
- Subcontracting estimates/costs and purchase costs are governed by the relevant grant form. Under actual-cost rules, subcontracting must meet general eligibility and usual purchasing practices ensuring best value for money (or lowest price) and no conflict of interest. For this lump-sum topic these inform eligible budget estimates, not separate reimbursement lines.
- Funding intensity, maximum
- 100 percent of eligible costs
RIA maximum rate under General Annex G; final rate and amounts are fixed in the grant agreement.
- Expected contribution per project
- €6,000,000
Commission estimate of EU contribution per project. Different requested amounts are not precluded; this is indicative, not a floor, cap or guarantee.
- Topic allocation
- €18,000,000
Indicative topic allocation; separate from per-project EU contribution and not an individual award or grant cap.
Personnel and services
General eligible personnel cost category only; not a call-promised hire.
Other role · Staff cost the grant can fund
These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated. The person must be assigned to the action, work under employee-like conditions, the work result must belong to the beneficiary unless otherwise agreed, and costs must correspond to actual costs without significant difference from comparable employees.
General cost category permitted by applicable MGA rules; no specific job or hire asserted.
Other role · Staff cost the grant can fund
These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated. Eligible only when assigned to the action and all MGA Article 6 conditions are met.
Conditional cost category, not an advertised role.
Other role · Staff cost the grant can fund
These are personnel cost estimate categories for this lump-sum action, not a payroll reimbursement line. Cost estimates are subject to actual-cost grant eligibility rules and the call’s lump-sum methodology; no named vacancy, headcount, salary rate or wage entitlement is stated. Costs must follow the Annex 2a unit-cost method and general eligibility conditions; no call-specific hire or salary is stated.
Source documents
Call facts
- Opens
- 17 Nov 2026
- Deadline model
- Single-stage
- Programme
- Horizon Europe · 2021 - 2027
- Call
- HORIZON-CL5-2027-01 · CLIMATE
- Types of action
- HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
- Source
- ec.europa.eu
- Checked
- 24 Oct 2026
- Portal updated
- 7 Oct 2026
- Review status
- Partial review
- Reviewed
- 23 Oct 2026
This is a summary of the source page, not the official text. Eligibility, conditions and the submission system are at the source.