Advancing understanding, modelling and prediction of extreme events in a changing climate

Expected Outcome:

Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

• Improved understanding of past and present extreme events in the context of climate change in Europe and globally, as well as the interaction between different hazards, their cumulative and/or cascading effects.

• Enhanced seamless prediction and projection modelling and attribution capabilities for extreme events and their likelihood to support preparedness, response and resilience to climate change by EU and national and regional actors. The EU Union Preparedness Strategy, the EU Adaptation Strategy and the European Climate Adaptation Plan can act as a guidance in these efforts.

• Up-to-date contributions towards latest climate science, risk assessments, adaptation strategies and policies and improved early warning systems for single and multi-hazard events.

Scope:

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events. Understanding and predicting extreme events and the interaction between different types of hazards is critical for building resilience and safeguarding communities.

Actions are expected to draw upon multiple lines of evidence from a hierarchy of models (including high resolution Earth system models and digital twins) and data of past and recent climate to further our understanding of processes, pre-conditioning and causality driving extreme events under climate change conditions, including anthropogenic factors and internal variability. Other innovative and efficient modelling and analysis methods, including AI-based approaches, to better predict, emulate and reveal climate change related extreme and unprecedented high impact events, and to capture their likelihood are particularly welcome.

Extreme events should be addressed in their broadest sense and types, encompassing isolated, compound or cascading events affecting lives, livelihoods, ecosystems, socio-economic sectors and infrastructures, from large-scale continental to local-scale phenomena.

Actions should encompass quantitative intercomparisons, retrospective analyses, lessons learned and case studies of recent emblematic and diverse extreme events, and demonstrate the corresponding progress offered by the project in terms of improved understanding, comprehensive integration of multiple lines of evidence, and seamless (e.g. from short-term weather to sub-seasonal and multi-decadal scales) prediction and projection capabilities and skills.

The work is expected to support the future European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA)[1], for example through storylines on extremes or other approaches. Project outcomes should demonstrate clear benefits for the prediction and attribution of extreme events and contribute to the activities of the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change.

Cooperation with global, EU, national and regional actors in the field of Disaster Risk Reduction and climate adaptation, including through integration into or interoperability with Copernicus, Destination Earth and other relevant initiatives is encouraged. In addition, international cooperation with low- to middle-income countries automatically eligible for Horizon Europe funding[2] is encouraged in support of climate resilience efforts, especially for capacity building.

Selected proposals may consider the involvement of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) whose contribution could consist of scientific advice and technical support in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service and transfer of relevant research outcomes to operations.

This topic is part of a coordination initiative between ESA and the European Commission on Earth System Science (ESSI) under the new Extreme-Events Flagship Cluster. Successful consortia will be asked to coordinate with projects to be selected under ESA's FutureEO programme to facilitate access to and uptake of satellite data products and related tools or methodologies. To this end, proposals should foresee sufficient means for effective coordination (i.e. cluster meetings, joint data management, potential joint actions).

[1] https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/publications/european-climate-risk-assessment

[2] Please refer to the Horizon Europe List of Participating Countries on EU Funding and Tenders Portal for up-to-date information.